--- title: "Forecast scenarios: what happens if you raise or cut the budget" description: "Scenarios built on the account history: what happens to leads and cost if the budget changes, with the limits of the answer and an honest not enough data." canonical: https://adsbeast.pro/features/en/forecasts language: en section: features product_route: https://adsbeast.pro/forecasts translations: - ru: https://adsbeast.pro/features/ru/forecasts - uk: https://adsbeast.pro/features/uk/forecasts - sk: https://adsbeast.pro/features/sk/forecasts - es: https://adsbeast.pro/features/es/forecasts - he: https://adsbeast.pro/features/he/forecasts - ar: https://adsbeast.pro/features/ar/forecasts --- # Forecast scenarios: what happens if you raise or cut the budget A client asks "what if we add a third to the budget", and guessing is not an answer. This section builds scenarios on the history of the account itself: how many leads came at what spend, how the cost moved, where a campaign runs into its ceiling. If there is not enough data for a conclusion, it says so - that is more honest than a straight line going up. ## How it is worked out - **The base**: The account history of 90 days and everything gathered since you connected - **What changes**: The daily budget of a campaign or ad group, or the split between platforms - **What is shown**: Expected leads and cost per lead as a range, not as a single number - **Limits**: Where a campaign runs into its reach and more budget stops working - **When it stays quiet**: On thin data the scenario is marked as unconfirmed - **Alongside**: Budget reallocation between campaigns every 7 days A scenario is an estimate on historical data, not a promise. A forecast presented as a guarantee damages a client relationship faster than a failed campaign does. ## What the section does ### A range instead of a single number "There will be this many leads" is wrong on the face of it: the outcome depends on the auction, the season and the competitors. The scenario shows a range and says how much data it was built on. - Expected leads and cost as a range - The amount of data the scenario was built on - A confidence label: confirmed, likely, not enough data ### Where more budget stops working A campaign has a ceiling: the audience runs out and the extra money goes into a rising cost. This section shows where that line falls on historical data, and that is usually the most useful answer a client gets. - The point beyond which cost per lead rises faster than volume - Campaigns that have already hit the ceiling - Campaigns that still have room ### Reallocation instead of an increase Often a client does not need a bigger budget - they need it moved between campaigns. Every 7 days the system proposes a reallocation with the arithmetic behind it, and it goes through the approval queue like any other action that touches money. - A proposal to move budget, with the expected effect worked out - An action in the approval queue rather than a quiet change - A history: what was proposed, what was confirmed, what came of it ### A conversation with the client on their own figures A scenario can be attached to a report or to a proposal. It rests on the data in the client ad account, and the client can check the source figures - unlike industry reference points from a slide deck. - A scenario inside the client report and the commercial proposal - The source data next to the conclusion ## How to build a scenario Nothing is needed beyond a connected account and the history it has gathered. 1. **Gather the history** - Connecting brings 90 days, and the history grows on its own after that. 2. **Pick a campaign and a change** - Raising the daily budget by a third, say, or moving it between platforms. 3. **Read the range and the limits** - Expected leads, cost, the saturation point, the confidence label. 4. **Confirm if you decide to** - The budget change goes into the approval queue and is applied after confirmation. ## Figures from the code - 90 days - of history arrive on connection - 7 days - between reallocation proposals - 12 h - between reviews of running tests ## What the scenarios do not do - They do not guarantee an outcome and are not handed to a client as a promise. - They do not build a forecast on data that is too thin - in that case they say so. - They do not stand in for testing a hypothesis: if the question matters, test it rather than estimate it. - They do not apply budget changes themselves. ## Questions and answers ### What is the forecast built on? On the history of the account itself: spend, leads and their cost by day. Connecting brings 90 days, and the history grows from there. Industry reference points are not used, because they cannot be checked. ### Why a range instead of a number? Because the outcome depends on the auction, the season and the competitors. A single number would only look more precise. Next to the range you get the amount of data and a confidence label. ### What do I do when the system says "not enough data"? That is an honest answer, not a failure. Either gather more history or test the hypothesis. The system will not dress up an estimate from three days as a forecast. ### Can I show a scenario to a client? Yes, it goes into the report and the commercial proposal together with the source data it was built on, so the client can check it. ## Build a scenario on a client account and show them the limits, not a curve going up The first 14 days are free on any plan and you do not need a card to start. History for 90 days arrives when the account is connected. - Start free: https://adsbeast.pro/signup?lang=en - Pricing: https://adsbeast.pro/pricing?lang=en ## See also - [Analytics and reports: where the money goes, what it returns, and what the client sees](https://adsbeast.pro/features/en/analytics-reports): Spend by platform in one currency, checked against the ad account, GA4 data alongside it, and regular client reports under the agency brand. - [Budget guard: it will not let you blow the cap or buy junk traffic](https://adsbeast.pro/features/en/budget-guard): Monthly caps and pacing across every platform: checked every 2 hours, a placement guard every hour, overspend stopped through an approval. - [Agency finance: how much you actually earn on each client](https://adsbeast.pro/features/en/agency-finance): Your own revenue, costs and profit: what each client earns you, who has not paid, cohorts by month of joining, and payouts to contractors. - [Today: what is happening right now and what needs a decision](https://adsbeast.pro/features/en/dashboard): One screen for every agency account: spend by platform in one currency, refreshed every 15 minutes, what is on fire and what needs a decision.